Trend-Rx helps you find the right predictors and good executives
Trend-Rx builds on Philip Tetlock’s work. His Good Judgment project focuses on improving predictions of future developments. His work also identifies the personalities of persons who make good predictions.
Building on an essay by the philosopher Isaiah Berlin, he identifies two types of people: hedgehogs and foxes:
Hedgehogs think from “one” worldview. They have strong opinions and are not very open to other opinions. They tend to be good in starting new developments. But they are less accurate in predictions of future.
Foxes think from multiple perspectives. They have less strong convictions and are more open to other opinions. They appear to be better able to understand how and what changes take place and predict future developments much more accurate than hedgehogs.
Finding the right people is a Trend-Rx specialism. We help organisations to find their hedgehogs and foxes so that the world is not only (re)discovered but also transformed. As Tetlock said, good predictions do not depend on supercomputers and complex methods. Being open to many sources, teamwork and the willingness to learn from mistakes are much more important.
The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.”
Isaiah Berlin – The hedgehog and the fox: an essay on Tolstoy’s view of history